Modul 15 - Kajian Risiko Dampak Perubahan Iklim.pdf

materi kajian risiko dampak dari perubahan iklim

1. ME-3036
PerubahanIklim
KajianRisikoDampakPerubahanIklim

2. Sustainable Development
IPCC AR5 SYR 2014

3. +
Hazard, Risk,Vulnerability
HAZARD is any substance, phenomenon or situation, which has
the potential to cause disruption or damage to people, their
property, their services and their environment

4. +

5. +

6. +
ASSESMENT APPOACH
◼Quantitative Approach
• Use mathematical functions with numerical
values
• Each variable will describe the relationship
among parameters that characterize the
phenomena
Qualitative Approach
Use qualitative descriptions (such as low,
medium or high) instead of numerical
values

7. +
ASSESMENT METHODS
Deterministic.
or
Probabilistic
• Estimates the probability of each hazard affecting
an area or region, and likelihood of occurrence
and can be determined through research studies,
simulation studies, etc(eg. Flood/erosion
simulation studies, slope stability calculations,
landslide hazard zonation).
Informal Ranking
• Uses subjectively defined scales to rank the
hazards and associated risks according to an
area specific or country specific ranking
system.

8. +

9. +
Hazard, Risk,Vulnerability
Vulnerabilityis a concept which describes factors or
constraints of an economic, social, physical or geographic nature, which
reduce the ability to prepare for and cope with the impact of
hazards.
VULNERABLE
AREA

10. +
Categories of Vulnerabilities
◼Hazard-specific:
–a characteristic which makes the element concerned susceptible to
the force/s or impact of a hazard. The geo-physical and locational
attributes of the element/s concerned are considered in this
category. Based on the present-knowledge of the distribution and
frequency of hazards, a community or country may be threatened
by specific hazards.
◼Setting-specific:
–this is concerned with the prevailing socio-economic arrangement
of the area concerned as to whether it is predominantly rural or
urban. There are inherent setting characteristics that may be
common to both as well as exclusive to each which contribute to
the general susceptibility of the area.

11. +
E.g: Urban Setting
Vulnerabilities
◼Concentrations and Crowdedness -the three aspects are crowdedness and
disease; crowdedness and buildings; crowdedness and resource base.
◼Numbers of Peoples and Activities -the two aspect of this condition are
Technologies and the Management System.
◼Social and Organizational Dimension
–The existing arrangement of a society regarding relationships of
individuals, groups and institutions may create adverse situations that
weakens the these elements’ capabilities to face or withstand hazards and
contribute instead to the intensifying of the effects
◼Attitudinal and Motivational Dimension
–The prevalent worldview of the society or certain groups within society may
contribute to a passive or non-active stance regarding the disasters that beset
thearea

12. +
Adaptive Capacity
◼Definition of Capacity: The resources, means
and strengths possessed by persons,
communities, societies or countries which
enable them to cope with, withstand, prepare
for, prevent, mitigate or quickly recover from a
disaster

13. +
RISK is the probability that negative consequences may arise
when hazards
interact with vulnerable areas, people, property, environment.
RISK is a concept which describes a potential set of
consequences that may
arise from a given set of circumstances.

14. +

15. +

17. +
AdaptasiPerubahanIklim
AdaptasididefinisikanolehIPCCsebagai“penyesuaiandalam
sistemalamiataumanusiadalammeresponakumulasi
perubahaniklimyangaktualatauyangdiperkirakanatauefek-
efeknya,yangmengurangibahayaataumenggalikesempatan
yangmungkinmenguntungkandarisuatukondisi”(Smithetal.,
2001,p.881).
Adaptasimandiri/Autonomousadaptationdianggapadalah
adaptasiyangdilakukanolehentitiasyangterkenadampak
sepertiindividu,masyarakat,ataualamdalammerespon
perubahanyangdiobservasiatauyangdipersepsidalamiklim.
Adaptasiantisipatifatauproaktif(anticipatoryatauproactive
adaptation)dilakukanuntukmengurangiresikodariperubahan
yangakandatangdariiklim.

18. +
MitigasiPerubahanIklim
◼Mitigasi: berbagaitindakanaktifuntukmencegah/
memperlambatterjadinyaperubahaniklim/ pemanasan
global & mengurangidampakperubahaniklim/pemanasan
global (melaluiupayapenurunanemisiGRK, peningkatan
penyerapanGRK, dll.)

19. + Contoh Kajian Kebijakan Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim

20. +
Analisis Risiko Perubahan Iklim
Formulasi analisis risiko ( Affeltranger, et al., 2006 dalam Suroso, D.S., 2008)
Vulnerability = (Exposure x Sensitivity)/Adaptive Capacity
Hazard = ancaman bahaya, vulnerability = kerentanan,
Exposure = keterpaparan, Sensistivity = sensitivitas,
Adaptive Capacity = kapasitas untuk adaptasi

21. +
TahapanKajianRisikoPerubahan
Iklim
1.Identifikasipermasalahandanpenetapanruanglingkupkerentanan
terhadapperubahaniklim
Langkahinisangatpentingsebagailandasanbagiimplementasistudi. Teknikyang dapatditerapkan
diantaranyabrainstorming, konsultasipublik, danFocus Group Discussion (FGD). Langkahinibertujuanuntuk
menentukankonsepdanmetodekerentanandanjugasebagaiforum interaksiawaldenganpemangku
kepentinganpadatingkatlokaldi daerahyang bersangkutan. Padalangkahini, kitadapatberkomunikasi
terkaitkebutuhandanketersediaandata diantarapadaahliyang terlibatdalampenelitianmaupuninstitusi
terkaitpadawilayahtersebut.
2.AnalisisBahayaPerubahanIklim
Padalangkahini, karakteristikbahaya, seperti, besaranbahaya, frekuensikejadian, danlevel bahaya
dianalisisiberdasarkaninformasiiklimsaatinimupunhistoris, sertaproyeksiperubahaniklimmasa depan
melaluimetodemodeling.
3.AnalisisKerentananterhadapDampakPerubahanIklim
Padalangkahini, dilakukanidentifikasiterhadapindikatorkerentanan, klasifikasiindicator (sosial, fisik, dan
ekonomi) danpembobotanindikator, selanjutnya, petakerentanandapatdiproduksiberdasarkankondisi
baseline danproyeksi.
4.AnalisisdanEvaluasiRisikoIklim
Risikomerupakanhasiloverlay antarapetabahayadanpetakerentanan. Olehkarenaitu, tingkatrisiko
dihasilkandariproses overlay antarapetayang dihasilkanpadaTahap2 danTahap3 di atas.

22. +
KerangkaKajianRisikodanAdaptasiPerubahanIklim(KRAPI) –
KLH 2012

23. +

24. +
CONTOH-CONTOH KAJIAN

25. ETCCDI Extreme Indices
CDD –Maximum length of dry spell,
maximum number of consecutive days with RR
< 1mm; Indicator of drought
R50mm --seasonal count of days when
PRCP≥ 50mm
RX1day --Monthly maximum 1-day
precipitation
Zhang et al. (2011)
http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/list_27_indices.shtml

26. +
The PDF of CDD distribution tended to be shifted to
the right for RCP4.5 & 8.5
Contohhazard:
Perubahanpada(anomaly) indeksiklim
ekstrim(CDD)
PDF of anomalous CDD for historical vs. End of Century
(Southern SUMATRA)

27. +
Contohhazard:
Perubahanpadafrekuensicurahhujanekstrim%
%
FUTURE PROJECTION
(RCP 4.5)
BASELINE
2001-2010
•Extreme rainfall on baseline
period (1981-2010): >60
mm/day. Relative probability of
that event was calculated for the
last 10 years of baseline period
(1991-2000)
•Probability of INCREASING
extreme rainfall occurrence
was estimated from 30 member
of future projection.

28. +
Contohhazard:
Perubahanpadaakumulasicurahhujanmusiman
FUTURE PROJECTION
(RCP 4.5)

29. +
Contohhazard:
Perubahanpadaindeksbahayakekeringan
BASELINE
1981-2010
FUTURE PROJECTION
2011-2040
•On baseline
period, a modified
Drought Hazard
Index (Shahidand
Behrawan, 2008)
was calculated
based on relative
frequency of 15
days-run dry spell
during rainy season
(DJF), 4 consecutive
Extreme Dry SPI-3
and SPI6.
•On future
period,
probability of
DHI increase
atleastone
levelrelative
to baseline level
was calculated
from ensemble
future
projection.

30. +
Contoh: KajianBahaya(Hazard)
Tanah Longsor

31. +
FaktorKelerengan

32. +
FaktorGeologis

33. +
FaktorPemanfaatanLahan

34. +
BASELINE
1981-2010
2021-2030 2031-2040
HAZARD LEVEL
2021-2030
2031-2040
•A trigger of landslide: 2 days-
run wet spell that precedes a
more than 60 mm/day rainfall
→based on historical record
•Average frequency of that
event was calculated over
BASELINE period
•Probability of INCREASING
frequency was estimated for
FUTURE PROJECTION
•HAZARD LEVEL was
estimated from the probability
map
FUTURE PROJECTION
Faktorcurahhujan:
Perubahanpadafrekuensicurahhujanpemiculongsor

35. +
Peta Bahaya(Hazard) Tanah
Longsor

36. +
Contohpenentuanrangking
(vulnerability):

37. +Peta Kerentanan(Vulnerability) Tanah
Longsor
Hasilagregatdarikomponen-komponenkerentanan

38. +

39. +
Peta RisikoTanah Longsor
Hasiloverlay dariPeta Hazard danPeta Vulnerability