Pakistan Floods 2025 and Historical Impact

Pakistan floods historical impact on economy and stock market.
Assessment of 2025 floods on the economy

1. Pakistan Floods:
Historical Impact
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2. Previous Floods
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Pakistan is currently at the cusp of widespread floods due to its eastern rivers overflowing as a result of
monsoon rains and release of water from Indian dams. As such, we believe it is important to assess the
impact of past floods to determine whether equity markets will be impacted.
In this report, we look over the KSE100 index performance and impact on different sectors during flooding
years to determine whether these floods will impact broader market sentiment and growth in fertilizer and
cement demand.
www.chasesecurities.com 021-35293054-60 Year Months of Flooding Notes
2010 Late July – September Worst floods in Pakistan’s history
2011 August–September Focused on Sindh
2014 September Heavy rainfall in Punjab & Kashmir
2022 June–August One of the most devastating in history
2025 June–August (ongoing) Flash floods, cloudbursts, landslides
Pakistan Floods

3. KSE100 Impact
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The floods of 2010 and 2011 witnessed a
correction in market performance but the
market recovered after a short blip.
The floods of 2014 also did not seem to have a
large impact on the KSE100 index.
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
Mar-10 May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10 Nov-10
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12
KSE100 Index
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,000
30,000
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
Mar-14 Apr-14
May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
KSE100 Index

4. KSE100 Impact
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On the other hand, the 2022 floods saw a brief correction of about 5% from July to August
however we do not believe this was due to floods as the equity market was experiencing
lackluster flows at the time.
38,000
39,000
40,000
41,000
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
48,000
Mar-22 Mar-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 Apr-22
May-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jun-22
Jul-22 Jul-22
Aug-22 Aug-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Jan-23 Jan-23 Feb-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Mar-23
KSE100 Index

5. Food Inflation and Floods
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In the past, floods have often led to food inflation as in 2010, 2011 and 2022. On the other
hand, 2014 did not see any significant uptick in food inflation and it is pertinent to note
that the inflationary surge in 2022 was also driven by heightened fuel prices in
international markets.
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Jan-01
Aug-01 Mar-02 Oct-02
May-03 Dec-03
Jul-04
Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08
Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10
Jul-11
Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15
Aug-15 Mar-16 Oct-16
May-17 Dec-17
Jul-18
Feb-19 Sep-19 Apr-20 Nov-20
Jun-21 Jan-22
Aug-22 Mar-23 Oct-23
May-24 Dec-24
Jul-25
CPI Food

6. Fertilizer Sales
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Fertilizer sales appeared to be impacted in the wake of floods after 2010 and 2011 however
there is no impact visible on sales of Urea for 2022.
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
Dec-01 Mar-03 Jun-04 Sep-05 Dec-06 Mar-08 Jun-09 Sep-10 Dec-11 Mar-13 Jun-14 Sep-15 Dec-16 Mar-18 Jun-19
Sep-20 Dec-21 Mar-23 Jun-24
Urea Sales 12M SMA (Tons)
Urea Sales 12M SMA Urea Sales During Floods
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
240,000
Dec-01 Mar-03 Jun-04 Sep-05 Dec-06 Mar-08 Jun-09 Sep-10 Dec-11 Mar-13 Jun-14 Sep-15 Dec-16 Mar-18 Jun-19
Sep-20 Dec-21 Mar-23 Jun-24
DAP Sales 12M SMA (Tons)
DAP Sales 12M SMA DAP Sales During Floods

7. Cement Local Sales and Floods
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Cement sales have typically seen a slowdown in the aftermath of floods as soon in the
2010 peak as well as the 2022 peak, however this could also be due to macroeconomic
trends prevalent at the time and reduced PSDP allocations.
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Dec-01
Jul-02
Feb-03 Sep-03 Apr-04 Nov-04 Jun-05 Jan-06
Aug-06 Mar-07 Oct-07
May-08 Dec-08
Jul-09 Feb-10 Sep-10
Apr-11 Nov-11 Jun-12 Jan-13
Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15
Jul-16
Feb-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Nov-18 Jun-19 Jan-20
Aug-20
Mar-21 Oct-21
May-22 Dec-22
Jul-23
Feb-24 Sep-24 Apr-25
Local Cement Dispatches (Tons) 12M SMA
Local Cement Dispatches Local Cement Dispatches during floods

8. Risks
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•Current 2025 floods are still ongoing leaving the scale of actual damage and government relief
response to it unknown.
•Equity markets are historically resilient, but sentiment could shift if floods cause wider
infrastructure and agricultural damage.
•Prior floods could have occurred during different macroeconomic environments making
comparisons biased.
Previously…
•Beforethe2022floods,PakistanhadagreedwiththeIMFon a primarybudgetsurplustargetof
0.2%ofGDP. Post-floods, the finance ministry estimated a primary deficit of around 2.8% of GDP-
or roughly PKR 2.2 Trn, a significant deviation.
•Pakistan reportedPKR340Bninflood-relatedexpendituresandsoughtIMFapprovaltoallow
that much increase in the budget deficit.
•Broadermacroeconomic indicators (debt, current account, growth) worsened compared to initial
IMFprojections.

9. Disclaimer
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Rating Definition
Buy Total stock return > 15%
Neutral
Total stock return between 0%
-15%
Sell Total Stock return < 0%

10. Our Team
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