Reasoning & Decision Making

Inductive reasoning; inductive argument; heuristics; Illusory correlations; Stereotype

1. Reasoning & Decision making.

2. THE NATURE OF INDUCTIVE REASONING In inductive reasoning, conclusions are suggested, with varying degrees of certainty, but do not definitely follow from premises.

3. Observation 1 : All the crows I’ve seen in Pittsburgh are black. When I visited my brother in Washington, DC, the crows I saw there were black too. Conclusion: I think it is a pretty good bet that all crows are black. Observation 2 : Here in Tucson, the sun has risen every morning. Conclusion: The sun is going to rise in Tucson tomorrow.

4. In evaluating inductive arguments, we decide how strong the argument is. Strong arguments result in conclusions that are more likely to be true, and weak arguments result in conclusions that are not as likely to be true. Also, Inductive arguments lead to what is probably true, not what is definitely true.

5. Factors contributing to the strength of inductive arguments Representativeness of observations Number of observations Quality of the evidence

6. We make so many assumptions about the world, based on past experience, that we are using inductive reasoning constantly, often without even realizing it.

7. Inductive reasoning is so automatic that you are not aware that any kind of “ reasoning ” is happening at all. When people use past experience to guide present behavior, they often use shortcuts to help them reach conclusions rapidly. These shortcuts take the form of heuristics.

8. Heuristics People use a number of heuristics in reasoning that often lead to the correct conclusion, but sometimes do not. The availability heuristic The representative heuristic.

9. THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC The availability heuristic states that events that are more easily remembered are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily remembered.

10. E.g. After seeing several news reports about car thefts, you might make a judgment that vehicle theft is much more common than it really is in your area.

11. This type of availability heuristic can be helpful and important in  decision-making . Faced with the need to an immediate decision, the availability heuristic allows people to quickly arrive at a conclusion.

12. Since heuristics is an approach to problem solving based on our past experiences, it is a practical method not guaranteed to be optimal or perfect. It happens, when less frequently occurring events stand out in our memory. It can lead to Illusory correlations

13. Illusory correlations Occur when a correlation between two events appears to exist, but in reality there is no correlation or it is much weaker than it is assumed to be.

14. The expectations from Illusory correlations may take the form of a stereotype , an oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative.

15. Presented By Tarun Chauhan